2012 Apocalypse
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The 2012 Apocalypse is the belief that civilization as we know it will come to an end in 2012. This bizarre idea is based on the Mayan calendar,[1] which completes a cycle on the date corresponding to our Gregorian calendar date of December 21st 2012 CE. The belief that this is a prediction of the world ending was something akin to believing the world is going to end on December 31st 1999 because the year 2000 starts with a 2 instead of a 1. An even more apt description is it is the equivalent to believing the world will end because you have to throw away this year's calendar, and go out and buy a new one for next year. A number of pop culture books and websites have tried to give this idea some scientific support,[2] but as per normal with pseudoscience, only the evidence that fits the belief is cited.
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[edit] The three Mayan calendars
To understand where this idea that the world will end comes from (or at least derive the date), we need to look at the Mayan calendars that have inspired it. There are basically three Mayan calendars which are important here (we will ignore the Venus one):
- The 260 day long calendar called Tzolk'in, which is used for religious ceremonies and is divided into 20 weeks of 13 days.
- The 365 day long calendar called Haab', which is used for planting crops.
- The Long Count calendar.
Every 52 Haab', the Haab' and Tzolk'in begin on the same day. This is known as a "calendar round". The Mayans named a day based on its position in both the Haab' and the Tzolk'in. As a result the Mayans could only record dates for 18,980 days (about 52 years, of course), one for each day in the round, which should have seen the average Mayan through most of their life. However, being extremely pedantic people, this wasn't enough days for the Mayans, so they created the Long Count calendar.
The Long Count calendar counts the number of days since the creation as described by Mayan mythology on August 11, 3114 BCE, in base twenty, with two exceptions.
- August 11, 3114 BCE is 13.0.0.0.0 on the Long Count.
- August 12, 3114 BCE is 13.0.0.0.1
- August 30, 3114 BCE is 13.0.0.0.19
- August 31, 3114 BCE is 13.0.0.1.0
However, the second number from the right, the uinal, only goes to 18. As 18 times 20 is 360 days, 0.0.1.0.0 or 1 tun represents approximately one year.[3]
The fifth number or baktun, 1.0.0.0.0, is numbered 1 - 13 for no clearly obvious reason. Upon reaching 13.19.19.17.19 the calendar the ticks over to 1.0.0.0.0. The official use of this calendar began 7.13.0.0.0.
December 20 2012 CE will be 12.19.19.17.19 and December 21st 2012 CE will be (shock horror) 13.0.0.0.0. - the completion of one "Grand Cycle". According to the Mayan creation myth, we are living in the "4th world". The third is said to have ended on 12.19.19.17.19, and likewise, according to the apocalyptomaniacs, will the fourth. For some reason, however, the Mayans thought it was important enough to record events, such as eclipses, that would occur after December 21st 2012 CE, so they didn't seem worried. In fact the Mayans had a unit of time alautun which corresponds to about 63 million years, or 1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0 on the Long Count (told you they were pedantic).
Other temple markings seem to indicate that this may be a short-hand version of the calendar as at least one temple puts August 31, 3114 BCE as 13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.0.0.0.0, if this number is days since the universe began the Mayans had a much higher estimate then what is currently agreed upon. In case you haven't noticed until this point the Mayans were dead keen on the numbers 13 and 20.
Basically, if everything is fine the morning of December 22nd, 2012 then we can finally put this nonsense to rest and go back to throwing wild parties.
Interesting enough, although not coincidentally, 11:11 December 21, 2012 UTC is when the Summer (or if you don't live on the Mayans' side of the world, Winter) Solstice will occur that year; so you might want to have a quick look up at the sky at that point.
[edit] Mechanism
Various unlikely geological and astronomical events have been put forth as possible causes of the apocalypse, such as: magnetic pole reversal;[4] near miss by hidden planet;[5] or astrological alignment with the galactic center.[6] The only common threads are scientific ignorance and wishful thinking.
The "Planet X" hypothesis may be the most laughable. Any blurry, slightly round object in an astronomical photo is claimed to be an image of the elusive world. Apparently, the near-miss of Planet X will cause the Earth to stop rotating for several hours, then re-start. Gravity (and angular momentum, for that matter) can do whatever you want it to... when you're batshit insane.
The pole reversal hypothesis is based on very real evidence of magnetic pole reversal in the past. Volcanic rocks are regularly observed to have magnetic field lines not pointing in the direction they should if the north magnetic pole had been where it is at the time of their formation. By dating rocks, it's been determined that the poles have reversed numerous times in the past. This process is poorly understood, but it's generally assumed to take thousands of years for a reversal. Doomsayers, however, predict that the reversal will be sudden, and that various ill effects will take place, such as increased influx of solar radiation (plausible) or, once again, that the Earth will stop rotating for several hours, then re-start in the opposite direction (a violation of the law of the conservation of angular momentum). There is also the issue that a magnetic field reversal happens over hundreds of years, rather than overnight.
The galactic center thing is pure bullshit astrology. Something about the earth, the sun, and the galactic core making a straight line at the solstice. "Planetary alignments" such as these are not terribly uncommon events on the cosmological timescale (in fact, many are inevitable due to orbital resonance), and the solar system has never collapsed in on itself because of them.[7]
NASA scientist Dr. Tony Philips has predicted large solar storms in 2012.[8] However, the world was not destroyed last time these occurred in 1958.
[edit] Pop culture
The comic strip Wapsi Square uses the 2012 apocalypse as a major plot unifying point, though this was not revealed until well into the comic's run. It also presents the lead character, Monica, as a confirmed skeptic who considers the weird "supernatural" things she encounters on a daily basis as simply a part of her world she doesn't understand yet.
There is also a major film that was released by Columbia Pictures on November 13, 2009.[9] which unfortonately was quite successful. As it was directed by Roland Emmerich of Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow, it is an understated, character driven romance against the backdrop of a well researched and realistic scenario of political intrigue and upheaval... well, maybe not. The viral marketing for the film has been criticized for lending too much weight to crackpot conspiracies about the end of the world.[10]
[edit] Politics
A much more dire apocalypse would be triggered by the election of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin or Minnesota congressthing Michele Bachmann to the White House in 2012.
Some idiot,[11] who claims he is a "trend forecaster", is predicting an economic Obamageddon will occur in 2012.[12]
[edit] Televangelism
Jack Van Impe, fresh from his success predicting the rapture in Y2K, now says the Great Tribulation will start in 2012.[13]
[edit] What Will Really Happen
NothingCthulhu is coming, for the stars will finally be right. Anyone else who professes any other belief is just a pawn of the government conspiracy to keep it quiet so that everyone will be driven mad and so the government officials will be so appreciated by the Elder Gods that they'll be eaten first! Ia! Ia! Cthulhu Fhtagn![14]
[edit] External links
- 2012 isn't the end of the world, Mayans insist
- 2012: The End of the World? - a lite discussion and rebuttal of some of the more insane ideas.
[edit] Footnotes
- ↑ http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2007-03-27-maya-2012_n.htm
- ↑ http://www.apocalypse2012.com/
- ↑ Mayan long count explained.
- ↑ http://www.polereversal.com/
- ↑ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8S0bj76389U
- ↑ http://alignment2012.com/
- ↑ Planetary Alignments: Fact or Fiction?
- ↑ http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stormwarning.htm
- ↑ IMDB - 2012
- ↑ The Guardian - 2012: a cautionary tale about marketing
- ↑ His name is Gerald Celente, for the record.
- ↑ YouTube video of idiot.
- ↑ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZrM8G7Reik
- ↑ http://monkeylogical.wordpress.com/2007/08/10/2012-cthulhus-in-the-house/
