Talk:Pascal's Wager

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I'm laying 5:2 odds that any wager you place with Pascal will go to his next drinking/drugging spree. ~~ CЯacke® 17:26, 9 July 2007 (CDT)

Recently, the Catholic church chose to abolish Limbo. Limbo was the supposed place where the souls of unbaptised babies and good people who never heard of God went to. In the new cosmology, such being will go directly to heaven and, presumably, collect $200 if they pass Go. My question is this, "Did the Pope just argue, quite eloquently, for the utter abolition of the Christian church?" Think about it, if everyone who has never heard of God or Jesus gets into heaven on a pass, shouldn't the church be more concerned with the salvation of the greatest number of souls rather than its own monopoly on faith? Wouldn't they serve God better by removing all knowledge of the church and its teachings from human memory?

Good question, except it did not abolish Limbo. --AKjeldsen^Godspeed! 15:34, 7 August 2007 (CDT)

"And what if we picked the wrong religion? Every week, we're just making God madder and madder!" - Homer Simpson, Homer the Heretic Garble 21:21, 23 August 2007 (CDT)

[edit] Pascal's Wager

Isnt the argument against it slightly contradictory? If you "choose one out of infinite possible varieties," and the "chance of worshiping him and not a nonexistent entity instead is one out of infinity," the chance cannot also be zero. Rangeley 10:36, 31 August 2007 (CDT)

Maths isn't my strong point so I'm not sure. No doubt the more numerate amongst us will comment. But I've got a different objection to this one. Are there really an infinite number of gods to chose from? I'd be hard pressed to name 50. Even if we include the entire history of mankind and supposed that every single individual created a new concept of god there still wouldn't be an infinite number of them.--Bob_M (talk) 10:49, 31 August 2007 (CDT)

The infinite possibilities would also include those not yet thought of. Rangeley 11:14, 31 August 2007 (CDT)

Well, if we include imaginary entities that have not yet been imagined then I suppose you are right - though I can't help feeling there may be just a touch of special pleading in there somewhere. :-) --Bob_M (talk) 12:11, 31 August 2007 (CDT)

I guess its best not to belive in god because i dont like a god that will condemn me to hell if i don't believe in him. That sounds more like Satan. Elassint Throw things at me 15:36, 31 October 2007 (EDT)

The one out of infinity thing resolves to zero under some mathematical conventions that are used so certain problems can be solved. While it is a useful convention, it can also be proven untrue in some constructs. Knowing what construct one is operating under is important to whether or not one uses the convention. (Example of "proving" it - the limit as x approaches inifinity of 1/x is zero, but that's only one way to analyze or solve for 1/infinity). In this construct, I don't think it is valid to use the convention, so "one out of infinity" just resolves to "really bad odds", not "zero". human ^waste 14:32, 12 February 2008 (EST)

[edit] Odd sentence

This sentence seems to keep coming back: (please accept this example for argument sake since the Christian God is the same as the Islamic God)? It doesn't seem to add a lot to the article. Could the bunches of numbers who want it please turn up here to talk about it? Thanks.--Bob^{bing up} 16:43, 12 January 2008 (EST)

Sounds like Dr. Doolittle, to be honest. --מְתֻרְגְּמָן ^{שְׁלֹום}

Could be, but as the same person also carried out some spelling corrections on a post of Elassint's I think there is another possibility.--Bob^{bing up} 16:59, 12 January 2008 (EST)

I think User:71.62.227.44 is Dr. D, but i am not. --75.89.115.231 17:03, 12 January 2008 (EST)

[edit] Criticism section

Having also read the Talk above, I'd say that the Criticism section should be modified. First of all, even if there were an infinite number of Gods, not every one has the same probability. I'd say that the most popular Gods would have a finite, albeit small, probability of existing. Let's say the Catholic God wins all with 0.2 % probability of existing. Under Pascal's Wager, I'd be compelled to believe in that God. Second, the infinite number of possible Gods should be grouped into taxonomic groups, representing more or less the same God. If the real God were Allah instead of the Catholic God mentioned above, there's a good chance I will see neither Christian angels nor Muslim virgins, but I'd be quite confident on a Protestant God understanding my heresy.

Instead, the points in the Assumptions section are valid, and I wouldn't suggest to anybody to embrace a religion based on Pascal's Wager. Editor at CP^{Bring TK back} 09:19, 12 February 2008 (EST)

I'm not sure how you arrive at the conclusion that not every god has the same possibility of existing. Could you elaborate? User:PalMD

It's implicit in the wager, that it's up to you to suppose absolute or relative probabilities. Strictly, we can say nothing about these probabilities. But as well as it's possible that there are infinite equiprobable gods, it's also possible that one god is much more probable than another. Given that both cases are possible, the best solution is to apply the wager. For that, use history of religions, science, experience, feelings, to bet on a good horse God. For example, it could be argued that the probability of a god of being narcisistic with vanity is more than 50 %. In that case, it's a good guess that god gives some hints of its existence, and as such should be chosen from the revealed ones. Editor at CP^{Bring TK back} 10:17, 12 February 2008 (EST)

The problem is that in this world, none of the gods actually shows up to show up to tell us anything. We have no objective data to work on.75.62.26.190 10:25, 12 February 2008 (EST)

That's why it's called a wager. --AKjeldsen^Godspeed! 10:33, 12 February 2008 (EST)

If any god did show up the whole thing would become academic or do I mean trivial? Oh no, It's that already. Susan^Miouw 10:36, 12 February 2008 (EST)

It absolutely would, Susan! I mean, where is the challenge in believing in something that is obvious to everyone? Nowhere at all, of course; that would be entirely trivial. But to face and defeat a multitude of soul-wracking doubts on a daily basis in order to be able to believe in something for which there is no objective proof whatsoever - to so to speak float freely above the Kierkegaardian 70,000 fathoms of water with no reassurances whatsoever, and yet dare to have faith and be happy about it - now there's a challenge worthy of a human being. You should try it sometime. ;-) --AKjeldsen^Godspeed! 10:59, 12 February 2008 (EST)

undent Now there's a thing worthy of Alice: can one try to believe? Or try to have faith?Susan^Miouw 11:13, 12 February 2008 (EST)

Depends, but I don't see why not. It's certainly something that requires some kind of an active action or decision on the part of the would-be believer. Whether that's enough is another question, of course, but I guess one will never know unless one tries. --AKjeldsen^Godspeed! 14:17, 12 February 2008 (EST)

Dis iz teh funny section E @ CP! "Let's say the Catholic God wins all with 0.2 % probability of existing" - leaving 99.8% odds that one is still wrong! Anyway, after reading your first comment above, I became convinced that one should firmly believe in an unknown and perhaps infinite number of gods. I think then as long as one puts YHWH first, one should fair pretty well at the denouement. Of course, one is also screwed if there are gods one has not imagined yet that require specific spells naming them for salvation. Delicious! human ^speakers 14:28, 12 February 2008 (EST)

Well people play lotto et co. every week, knowing that they are at a disadvantage, with much less probability of winning prize N.1, which is, arguably?, worth less than a fully paid, all included, unlimited stay in Heaven. I admit though, that it is much more difficult to choose the right god than bying a lotto ticket. It's an art to choose a god, that is probable, offers a good Heaven (endlessly playing the same tune with a harp is not so tempting, is it?), and is similar enough to other gods, in case of picking the wrong one. Editor at CP^{Bring TK back} 14:49, 12 February 2008 (EST)

Addendum: you may be right, an undefined god may be the best solution, depending on the actual god. Generic prayers now and then, some good actions, some less good actions, being careful not to offend any god - better omophobia than a crusade - and a place in heaven is guaranteed. Editor at CP^{Bring TK back} 14:52, 12 February 2008 (EST)

I suspect it is "probable" that if any super-powerful entity exists that preserves our consciousness after death, they also don't really care about the details of our miserable lives here on earth, and thus we all go to "heaven". Which could be hell for some people ;) human^ities 15:42, 12 February 2008 (EST)

AKj and Susan - give Hell Is the Absence of God by Ted Chiang a read (won the Hugo and Nebula awards for Best Novelette in 2002). At one point, this story was published to the web for free on a micropayment site (now costs $1.25) though you can still find copies of it floating around to read. Its an odd story, and by no means do I suggest that this is proof of any deities existence, but rather read it as a story about the challenge in believing in something that is obvious to everyone. --Shagie 14:34, 12 February 2008 (EST)